Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Setup Thunderbird 2.0 for Gmail

I thought I'd share how I setup Thunderbird 2.0 to handle Gmail accounts so the folders match up. First follow the install instructions from the Gmail website for Thunderbird 2.0. Then, apply the following:

*) Go to Account Settings -> Server Settings
*) in the box that says Server Settings, click Advanced...
*) For the IMAP Server Directory, type [Gmail] (with the brackets)
*) click OK

*) Go Account Settings -> Copies & Folders
*) check Place a copy in:
*) select the Other: radio button
*) select the Sent Mail folder under your Gmail account in the dropdown

*) Repeat the above process for Drafts & Templates, choosing the Drafts folder on Gmail
*) Go to Account Settings -> Junk Settings
*) Repeat the above process for the Junk folder, choosing the Spam folder on Gmail

Thats it! You will no longer see a [Gmail] subfolder, and your Sent, Drafts, and Spam folders will match up to the correct Gmail folders.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Winning No Limit Hold-Em

It's been awhile since I've played some live poker, but I went to the casino an hour up the road over the weekend. I turned $100 into $850 at the $1-3 NL table in about six hours. Not bad! Although I'll have to admit, there were some frustrated people at the table, and I'll tell you why.

To several of the players, I seemingly played junk cards most of the time, and took down some very large pots with them. I can see how this can be frustrating when you have solid preflop cards, raise with them, get called and get taken by a lucky flop. But there is a method to the madness, and I'll try to explain.

First of all, I like to show down a big bluff somewhere in the beginning of my game. I'll raise preflop with junk, bet the flop, bet the turn, bet the river and turn up next to nothing. Now they have a perception of a loose foolish player at the table. It works even better if I get lucky and hit two pair or something. I just make sure my betting made no sense. I'll do this now and then, especially if the table is changing players often. I like to keep the loose image. This helps my strong hands make more, and also keeps them guessing.

Now, in my observation of the game of No-Limit (especially at these smaller stakes,) cards like pocket aces or pocket kings will typically win a small pot or lose a large one. On the other hand, cards like small suited connectors, small pairs, small one gappers are the opposite: they will typically lose a small pot, or win a large one.

One reason is the difference in starting strength of the hand. If pocket aces gets no help on the flop, it's going to be hard to fold that hand in any event. Whereas something like 56, if the flop isn't strong, it's an easy fold.

Another is deception. You call preflop with 56 and the flop comes 56T rainbow, the aces aren't going to be too concerned about losing with that texture of a flop and they'll likely pay you off nicely. Whereas the flop comes 9TJ, the aces will be a bit more cautious if they get re-raised.

Holding small cards, the flop that helps you is not likely going to be helping another player in the hand. When you call a preflop raise, you are typically going to be up against stronger starting hands, and that helps when you hit the flop right. You don't have to guess if you have 2nd best, such as a hand like TJ might be doing with a flop of TJQ.

If you are going to try playing this style, remember implied odds, that is the most important thing. That is, if you are going to call a preflop raise with little cards, make sure you have a bankroll to back it up, as well as the guy you are calling. You want sufficient implied odds so when you hit the flop, you get paid off.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Poker Tells Database

Poker tells are one of the most fascinating an fun elements of poker. It's always great to hear about a new tell that someone has examined on a player. However, there is no convenient place to browse through poker tells and contribute your own. So, I built one.


www.pokertellsdb.com
is an online poker tells database, where anyone can contribute poker tells, as well as rate and comment on them. I'll consider this in "beta" since I built the entire system in the course of a couple of days. Let me know what you think, and what features it could use. It's fairly sparse since I only added a few tells I could think of right off hand. Please contribute!



http://www.pokertellsdb.com/

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Playing Pocket Aces

Sitting at the local poker room, you take a look at your hole cards and see pocket aces. A rush goes through your body. Now, what is the best course of action? How do you maximize your profit, and minimize your bad beats?

Generally speaking, raise with them. Raise and re-raise. If you are first to act, a good starting point is roughly 3-4 times the big blind. If you are behind a raiser, raise 2-3 times what he raised. The key here is to minimize callers. You don't want more than one or two. On the flop, no matter what comes out, put out a continuation bet. I like to mix it up from 75-100% of the pot. Usually you can take the hand down right here. If you get called or re-raised, then it is time to analyze your position, your opponent and stack sizes. Usually you aren't going to get out of the hand unless you are really sure you are beat. If your opponent out-flopped you then that is the breaks. But, the important thing is that you make them pay to see the flop. This will keep your aces on the winning side in the long run.

Some like to slow-play the aces. Although it is nice to mix up your play, typically you will have a chance at more money by raising. Let's take an example, and play the hand two different ways.

Let's say you hold aces, and a player across the table holds queens. You limp in with hopes that someone behind you will raise. The queens raise 3xbb, and you re-raise to 3x that amount. Now you have the queens suspicious. Your hand looks very strong from an early position check-raise, and they are right! You've basically given away the strength of your hand, and now the astute player may fold the queens right here.

Now lets rewind. This time we raise with our aces 4xbb. The queens re-raise 3x your raise. Now your re-raise again 2-3x his raise. At this point the queens have a LOT more money in the middle before they have determined the strength of your hand. Many times they will be committed, and call your raise, or move all-in. This is exactly the situation you want with your aces.

Regarding this whole raising strategy, it applies to most all of your poker play. Look for reasons to raise, and keep check-raises to a minimum. If you flop a straight, raise. If you flop a set, come out betting! You are likely to get more money out of those hands betting/raising than check-raising. Raising is a big part of winning poker, so don't miss that opportunity. About the only time you don't want to raise is if you have the board completely crippled, such as flopping quads or the nut boat. In that case, you may want to check and give your opponents a chance to catch a card or bluff at you.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

The Truth about Slot Machines

This is a follow-up to my blog post about KENO playing. There are many misconceptions about how slot machines work, and I'd like to clear them up. Some people that play slots tend to think a slot machine is "hot", or "due to hit soon" because it hasn't hit in awhile. Hopefully I can make it clear why that isn't so.

Firstly, a slot machine works on pure probability. Every spin has the same chance to win. Let's say we have a slot machine that has a 100,000 in 1 chance to hit the jackpot. That means that every time you spin the reels, you have a 100,000 in 1 chance of hitting the jackpot. So what happens if you spin the reels exactly 100,000 times in a row? Will the jackpot hit once somewhere in those spins? The odds predict this, but it's not necessarily so. It might hit once, or it might not hit at all. Or, it might hit several times. You might hit two in a row! Or it might go a million pulls in a row without ever hitting one jackpot.

Since every pull has an equal chance to win, they are completely independent of each other. That means, if the slot hasn't hit in 90,000 consecutive spins, that does NOT mean it has 10,000 spins left before the jackpot hits. The last 90,000 spins have zero influence on what is yet to come. You can pretty much figure that any time you sit down at this slot machine, it will probably hit the jackpot sometime in the next 100,000 spins, regardless of what has happened in the past.

If you are playing on a slot machine with a progressive jackpot, you can keep a rough estimate on how long it has been since it hit. The higher the progressive, the longer it has been since the last time it hit. But, your odds of winning never change. Whether the jackpot just hit, or it has been a year since it hit, your chances of winning on each spin of the reel are exactly the same.

Some say they've never seen a jackpot hit early, but it does hit a very short time after the progressive gets very big. Why is that?

Well, if the jackpot hit very early, you probably wouldn't even notice. Say the jackpot hits and starts over at $1,000. You come back a week later at the jackpot has progressed to $1800. What you don't realize is that the jackpot may have hit again at $1200 and reset to $1000, then climbed it's way back to $1800. When the jackpot hits early, you can't really see any consequences of it.

So why does it seem to hit soon after it gets very big? It's a matter of sheer numbers: the more spins that happen, the more chances there are to hit the jackpot. Every single spin of the reels still has a 100,000 to 1 chance to hit, but if the slot gets a whopping 100,000 spins in one week, it is likely that the jackpot will hit sometime during that week. But again, it might not hit at all, or might hit several times in that week. After the jackpot is hit, the volume of spins will most certainly die down to a trickle again, at least until it builds up again.

Now you might be inclined to play the slot machine with the big progressive, and that makes sense: if you are lucky enough to hit the jackpot, it pays out better than a machine that hit recently with low progressive. But your odds of winning are no different than playing a slot machine that hit one minute ago.

This logic can be carried over to the roulette wheel. Casino's have started posting the recent numbers that have hit. But, those numbers have zero influence on future spins of the reel. You can play the same number all night, or switch numbers every spin, it really doesn't matter.

Keno is very much the same. The numbers that have hit recently have no influence on the upcoming numbers. You can play the same numbers all night, or switch numbers every ticket. It doesn't make a bit of difference in your chances to win.

Friday, December 21, 2007

It's never easy...

How often are you in this position: You are all in preflop against a dominated hand, say AQ vs AJ. You figure him for 3 outs. The flop comes 89T. No jacks, but now he is open ended. Then the turn comes and doesn't hit, but gives him a four card flush.

It just seems that more often than not, if the flop doesn't hit them perfect to beat you, they end up with more and more outs. Very seldom is the flop, turn and river dead for them. Doyle says "It's never easy..." and boy is he right.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

What is beyond our Universe?

This is always a fascinating question to think about. What is beyond the universe as we know it? If we perceive our universe to be constantly expanding, what is it expanding into? Nothing? How do you describe nothing?

Is there life beyond our planet? If the universe is infinitely big, it would seem impossible that we are the only living thing in the vastness of space.

Interesting things to think about. Here are links to three things that are fun to take a look at:

From the Milkyway to Quarks. Zoom in from the largest to the smallest of things.
http://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/primer/java/scienceopticsu/powersof10/index.html

Imagining the 10th dimension. It's hard to grasp.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-97057222894136590

They're made out of meat, by Terry Bison. This gives you one man's hilarious imagination regarding how aliens may perceive us.
http://www.terrybisson.com/meat.html