The Truth about Slot Machines

This is a follow-up to my blog post about KENO playing. There are many misconceptions about how slot machines work, and I'd like to clear them up. Some people that play slots tend to think a slot machine is "hot", or "due to hit soon" because it hasn't hit in awhile. Hopefully I can make it clear why that isn't so.

Firstly, a slot machine works on pure probability. Every spin has the same chance to win. Let's say we have a slot machine that has a 100,000 in 1 chance to hit the jackpot. That means that every time you spin the reels, you have a 100,000 in 1 chance of hitting the jackpot. So what happens if you spin the reels exactly 100,000 times in a row? Will the jackpot hit once somewhere in those spins? The odds predict this, but it's not necessarily so. It might hit once, or it might not hit at all. Or, it might hit several times. You might hit two in a row! Or it might go a million pulls in a row without ever hitting one jackpot.

Since every pull has an equal chance to win, they are completely independent of each other. That means, if the slot hasn't hit in 90,000 consecutive spins, that does NOT mean it has 10,000 spins left before the jackpot hits. The last 90,000 spins have zero influence on what is yet to come. You can pretty much figure that any time you sit down at this slot machine, it will probably hit the jackpot sometime in the next 100,000 spins, regardless of what has happened in the past.

If you are playing on a slot machine with a progressive jackpot, you can keep a rough estimate on how long it has been since it hit. The higher the progressive, the longer it has been since the last time it hit. But, your odds of winning never change. Whether the jackpot just hit, or it has been a year since it hit, your chances of winning on each spin of the reel are exactly the same.

Some say they've never seen a jackpot hit early, but it does hit a very short time after the progressive gets very big. Why is that?

Well, if the jackpot hit very early, you probably wouldn't even notice. Say the jackpot hits and starts over at $1,000. You come back a week later at the jackpot has progressed to $1800. What you don't realize is that the jackpot may have hit again at $1200 and reset to $1000, then climbed it's way back to $1800. When the jackpot hits early, you can't really see any consequences of it.

So why does it seem to hit soon after it gets very big? It's a matter of sheer numbers: the more spins that happen, the more chances there are to hit the jackpot. Every single spin of the reels still has a 100,000 to 1 chance to hit, but if the slot gets a whopping 100,000 spins in one week, it is likely that the jackpot will hit sometime during that week. But again, it might not hit at all, or might hit several times in that week. After the jackpot is hit, the volume of spins will most certainly die down to a trickle again, at least until it builds up again.

Now you might be inclined to play the slot machine with the big progressive, and that makes sense: if you are lucky enough to hit the jackpot, it pays out better than a machine that hit recently with low progressive. But your odds of winning are no different than playing a slot machine that hit one minute ago.

This logic can be carried over to the roulette wheel. Casino's have started posting the recent numbers that have hit. But, those numbers have zero influence on future spins of the reel. You can play the same number all night, or switch numbers every spin, it really doesn't matter.

Keno is very much the same. The numbers that have hit recently have no influence on the upcoming numbers. You can play the same numbers all night, or switch numbers every ticket. It doesn't make a bit of difference in your chances to win.

It's never easy...

How often are you in this position: You are all in preflop against a dominated hand, say AQ vs AJ. You figure him for 3 outs. The flop comes 89T. No jacks, but now he is open ended. Then the turn comes and doesn't hit, but gives him a four card flush.

It just seems that more often than not, if the flop doesn't hit them perfect to beat you, they end up with more and more outs. Very seldom is the flop, turn and river dead for them. Doyle says "It's never easy..." and boy is he right.

What is beyond our Universe?

This is always a fascinating question to think about. What is beyond the universe as we know it? If we perceive our universe to be constantly expanding, what is it expanding into? Nothing? How do you describe nothing?

Is there life beyond our planet? If the universe is infinitely big, it would seem impossible that we are the only living thing in the vastness of space.

Interesting things to think about. Here are links to three things that are fun to take a look at:

From the Milkyway to Quarks. Zoom in from the largest to the smallest of things.
http://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/primer/java/scienceopticsu/powersof10/index.html

Imagining the 10th dimension. It's hard to grasp.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-97057222894136590

They're made out of meat, by Terry Bison. This gives you one man's hilarious imagination regarding how aliens may perceive us.
http://www.terrybisson.com/meat.html

TinyMVC

I had started on a PHP MVC framework many months ago. I got it working but never released it to the public. I think it is finished enough to let some people try it out.

TinyMVC is quite possibly the smallest, fastest and featureless ;) MVC framework for PHP. It's a perfect starting point for your application if you are starting from scratch, and want to adhere to the MVC design principle. It uses PDO as the model by default. It requires PHP5.

TinyMVC does not require a template engine, it uses PHP as it's view layer. However, you are free to bolt on any template engine of your liking, and there is an example for Smarty in the docs.

To try out TinyMVC, go to http://www.tinymvc.com/ (passwords have been removed.)

Read through all the documentation before you begin, it doesn't take but a few minutes. Let me know what you think. Feel free to report bugs. The framework is tiny (16k download), so they should be easy to find.

Build your own $200 PC

I saw the $199 gPC at Wal-Mart, and wondered if I could build a better system for the same cost. So, here goes my attempt. This PC was designed for typical use: email, internet, word processing, etc. This is NOT meant for hard core gaming. I looked for the best bargain for the buck. No junk, just acceptable hardware for the extreme budget in mind.

Everything was put together from Newegg.com. For $203.93 (yes, I went over by a mere 3.93), I ended up with:

2.0GHz AMD Athlon CPU / Motherboard combo ($69.99)
Nvidia GForce 6100 (built into Motherboard)
512MB DDR RAM (2x256) ($29.99)
Black tower case with 430W power supply ($19.99)
160GB IDE hard disk ($45.99)
black keyboard/mouse ($6.99)
20x DVD +/- burner ($27.99)
black speakers (2.99)

All that for $203.93. Not bad!

Here is the parts list:

LITE-ON 20X DVD±R DVD Burner
Linkworld 3230-02C2222U Black Steel ATX Case 430W PS
EXCELSTOR 160GB 7200 RPM SATA Hard Drive
SpecResearch SP-250 2.0 Speakers
SpecResearch PS/2 Standard Multi-Media Keyboard/Mouse
Kingston 512MB (2 x 256MB) 184-Pin DDR SDRAM
ECS C51G-M754 A 3200+ AMD Athlon 3200+ 754 NVIDIA GeForce 6100

I could have saved even more by excluding some luxuries such as DVD burning, less hard disk space and less RAM. I did put myself on a budget of $200, so I gave myself the most I could get.

Now lets compare this to the$199 Green PC available at Wal-Mart:

1.5GHz CPU
80GB hard disk
DVD ROM (no DVD burning)
VIA UniChrome Pro
Linux/OpenOffice (you can download for free)
Fax-Modem (who needs that? add $5.99 to my cost if you need it.)

So, it seems my home-build system is faster, has double the hard disk capacity, a DVD burner, and better video capability. Not to mention the Linkworld case looks better, and better built IMHO.

So there you go, build it yourself (or have your kid do it, it's not hard), and you can get a lot more computer for the same cost.

poker programs steal window focus

One very annoying "feature" of most poker clients (such as PokerStars) is that they constantly steal the focus of your currently active window. How often have you accidentally typed a password or a private conversation to everyone at the table? Fortunately, there is an easy way to fix this for Windows (I'm using XP, I haven't tried Vista.) The instructions are here.

How to not go broke playing on-line poker

You consider yourself a good poker player, better than most. But, it seems like you relentlessly go broke. Bad beats seem to consume you. You can't overcome the inevitable sucks-outs that eventually deplete your bankroll. How do you survive?

Typically the problem is bankroll management, and this is coupled with self discipline. Even if you are the best player, you will get bad beats, and gambling too much of your bankroll is a big mistake. What is even worse, many players will gamble an even bigger chunk of their bankroll to recover, play on tilt, and lose the whole thing. That is self discipline that needs corrected. So instead of just preaching about it, I'm going to give you three discreet rules to follow.

Rule 1. Never gamble more than 5% of your entire bankroll. Don't sit down at any table, any game for more than 5%. One exception is if you only have $10 or less. You could stick to penny poker, or just gamble a bit more (10%) until you are lucky enough to reach at least $50. Once you hit $50, lock in this rule.

Rule 2. If you decide to play a no-limit or pot-limit cash game for 5%, leave as soon as you double up your stake. Why is that you say? If you are gambling 5% and you double that to 10% or more, you don't want to open yourself to the opportunity of getting busted for 10% of your bankroll. Leave and start over. If you like playing a monster stack, just play lower limits so that stack is 5% or less of your entire bankroll.

Rule 3. If you enter a large tournament, don't gamble more than 3% of your bankroll. Large tournaments are going to be more difficult to cash, and the payback may not be so much unless you get really deep. If you are entering a rebuy tournament, estimate your rebuy/add-on total into that 3%.

Now, about self discipline. If you end up on a losing streak (and you WILL), you must drop down to lower stakes until you recover. Sometimes that means dropping down two, or even three levels of stakes if the going gets tough. What you have to overcome is the frustration of moving down, and this is just a part of playing poker. You will get bad runs, and temporarily moving down to lower limits is just part of the journey. It is also possible that you are playing limits that you are not yet profitable at. Even so, moving down, then back up when you regain your bankroll is going to keep you alive while you learn those higher limits.

That's it. If you try these three rules, let me know how it goes!

Oh and by the way, these rules apply to live poker too. Keep yourself a bankroll set aside just for poker. The vast majority of poker players just take whatever money they have. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. They really have no concept of how much they win or lose overall. But with a bankroll set aside, all of a sudden you are faced with the realization of whether or not you actually win or lose playing poker. Good for you! If you can't keep that bankroll alive without a constant feed from the paycheck, you might want to try these rules :)